Population estimates show reliably Democratic states, like New York, California, and Illinois will each lose at least one congressional district and representation in the Electoral College. Conversely, states that tend to vote for Republicans—such as Texas, Florida, and Montana—are expected to increase their presence.
“This is looking to benefit Republicans only because of how the landscape has changed,” said Jenna Ellis, senior legal analyst for the Trump 2020 campaign,according to radio station KTRH.
Ellis also noted that Democrats’ anticipated losses is why they mobilized so strongly to oppose the Trump administration’s addition of a citizenship question on the Census.
“They’re not interested in laws,” she said. “They’re not interested in sound reasoning or fair and accurate representation of every American. They are only interested in concentrating their own political power by any means necessary.”
Who wins? Who loses?
Ten states are said to lose one Electoral College vote, split evenly along partisan lines.
Among GOP strongholds expected to lose an electoral vote are: Alabama, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Among the blue states are California, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island. That’s an even minus five for both parties from the 2016 election night map, according toan analysis by NBC News.
However, when analysts looked at states expected to gain seats, the GOP comes out on top. Three Republican states that went for Trump in 2016—Montana, Arizona, and North Carolina—are likely to pick-up one seat after the Census. On the Democratic side of the ledger, two states (Oregon and Colorado) will each add a seat, resulting in a net gain of one Electoral College seat for Republicans.
The big problem for the Left is that forecasts show Florida and Texas—both of which voted for Trump in 2016—picking up a combined five seats (two for Florida, three for Texas). Thus, if the estimates hold, Republicans will pick-up six Electoral College votes. Of course, this assumes that both the GOP maintains control of the Lone Star and Sunshine States, but that’s a topic for a different day.
The left has long opposed the Electoral College
Progressives have long criticized the presence of the Electoral College as a countermeasure to pure majoritarianism. In a July tweet, Democrat Bernie Sanders declared. “Abolish the Electoral College.” Additionally, in August, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) called the system an inherently racist “scam.”
However, conservatives insist the Electoral College is a constitutional safeguard to protect minorities from the tyranny of majorities.
“The founding fathers very wisely embedded a caution in making sure we have representation, through the Electoral College, from the entire United States of America. And that it wasn’t a pure, strict Democracy. It wasn’t just a popular vote,” Ellis said.